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彭实戈院士——Distributional uncertainty of the financial time series measured by G-expecations
发布人:许全华  发布时间:2021-07-07   浏览次数:210

题目:Distributional uncertainty of the financial time series measured by G-expecations


报告人:彭实戈院士(山东大学)


时间:7月9日,08:30-09:30


地点:活动中心214室


摘要:Financial time series admits inherent uncertainty and randomness that changes over time. To clearly describe volatility uncertainty of the time series, we assume that the volatility of risky assets holds value between the minimum volatility and maximum volatility of the assets. This study establishes autoregressive models to determine the maximum and minimum volatilities, where the ratio of minimum volatility to maximum volatility can measure volatility uncertainty. By utilizing the value at risk (VaR) predictor model under volatility uncertainty, we introduce the risk and uncertainty, and show that the autoregressive model of volatility uncertainty is a powerful tool in predicting the VaR for a benchmark dataset.